Introduction

The Western Boreal Initiative (WBI) aims to use available bird count data and create integrated landscape simulation outputs.

The goal of this document is to outline the bird modeling component of the WBI building on the BAM National Models (v4), explaine the methods, outputs, and demonstrate the usage of the models for forecasting.

Methods

Data set

The following data sets were used:

  • version 6 of the BAM database
  • BAM’s version of the point level Canadian BBS data
  • all point-count compatible information from WildTrax

Locations were retained inside of the WBI study area:

Subregion Area_km2 n_SS n_PKEY n_Road n_ARU Years
WBAB 440142 24875 105590 9450 49766 1993-2020
WBBC 283930 9162 11360 869 656 1993-2019
WBYT 425409 3536 7239 901 1610 1994-2019
WBMB 542250 25761 30201 3505 150 1993-2020
WBSK 394355 6192 12747 1910 3983 1993-2020
WBNT 993122 3382 9291 840 6654 1997-2020

I build models for the following 117 species (AOU codes): ALFL, AMCR, AMGO, AMRE, AMRO, ATSP, ATTW, BAOR, BARS, BAWW, BBCU, BBMA, BBWA, BBWO, BCCH, BEKI, BHCO, BHVI, BLBW, BLJA, BLPW, BOBO, BOCH, BOWA, BRBL, BRCR, BTNW, CAWA, CCSP, CEDW, CHSP, CMWA, COGR, CONW, CORA, COYE, CSWA, DEJU, DOWO, EAKI, EAPH, EUST, EVGR, FOSP, GCFL, GCKI, GCSP, GCTH, GRAJ, GRCA, GRYE, HAFL, HAWO, HETH, HOLA, HOSP, HOWR, KILL, LALO, LCSP, LEFL, LEYE, LISP, MAWA, MAWR, MODO, MOWA, NAWA, NOFL, NOWA, OCWA, OSFL, OVEN, PAWA, PHVI, PIGR, PISI, PIWO, PUFI, RBGR, RBNU, RCKI, RECR, REVI, RUBL, RUGR, RWBL, SAVS, SEWR, SOSA, SOSP, SPSA, SWSP, SWTH, TEWA, TOSO, TOWA, TRES, VATH, VEER, VESP, WAVI, WBNU, WCSP, WETA, WEWP, WIPT, WISN, WIWA, WIWR, WTSP, WWCR, YBFL, YBSA, YEWA, YHBL, YRWA.

Note: WildTrax data processing involved the following arbitrari decision. Abundance is sometimes given as TMTT (too many to tag) in the database. When this was encountered, I assigned the abundance value 100 to the data. This is just a way to keep track of the the records as a numeric field (and it is unlikely to get such high numbers for territorial songbirds). These placeholders (100 and multiples of 100) were replaced by the 99% percentile of the non-zero count values for each species. This truncation impacts very few of the values, but these excessive values if untreated can introduce huge bias into machine learning results.

Subsampling

Susampling was applied to mitigate over/undersampling across regions, and to even out spatial sampling intensity inside the subregions.

I defined a cluster ID based on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid, this was combined with survey year, and only 1 survey event was selected from each combination of cluster and year. The single survey was selected randomly (i.e. soring the full data set randomly and selecting every 1st datum).

The subsampling was repeated independently for bootstrap iterations. The bootstrap ID 1 refers to the randomly subsampled data without sampling with replacement. Bootstrap IDs >1 refer to the randomly subsampled data and sampling with replacement. The data sets had sample size 29247. 10 replicates were run for each species.

Variable selection

I used the set of variables used in the BAM National Model development. Some variables were excluded because those were unsuitable for future forecasting. Other variables were excluded bacuse in the WBI study area they represented constant value, had vary few unique values, or were highly correlated.

The following 67 variables were retained after the initial screening: AHM, CMD, dev750, EMT, LandCover_Veg_v1, LandCover_Veg_v1.1, LandCover_VegNonTreed_v1, LandCover_VegNonTreed_v1.1, LandCover_VegTreed_v1.1, Landsc750_Abie_Bal_v1, Landsc750_Abie_Las_v1, Landsc750_Abie_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Acer_Neg_v1, Landsc750_Acer_Rub_v1, Landsc750_Betu_Pap_v1, Landsc750_Betu_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Frax_Ame_v1, Landsc750_Frax_Nig_v1, Landsc750_Frax_Pen_v1, Landsc750_Genc_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Lari_Lar_v1, Landsc750_Lari_Lya_v1, Landsc750_Needleleaf_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Pice_Eng_v1, Landsc750_Pice_Gla_v1, Landsc750_Pice_Mar_v1, Landsc750_Pice_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Pinu_Ban_v1, Landsc750_Pinu_Res_v1, Landsc750_Pinu_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Pinu_Str_v1, Landsc750_Popu_Bal_v1, Landsc750_Popu_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Popu_Tri_v1, Landsc750_Prun_Pen_v1, Landsc750_Pseu_Men_v1, Landsc750_Quer_Mac_v1, Landsc750_Sali_Spp_v1, Landsc750_Stand_Age_v1, Landsc750_Thuj_Occ_v1, Landsc750_Ulmu_Ame_v1, led750, MAP, PPT_sm, SHM, slope, Species_Abie_Bal_v1, Species_Abie_Las_v1, Species_Acer_Neg_v1, Species_Betu_Pap_v1, Species_Betu_Spp_v1, Species_Lari_Lar_v1, Species_Pice_Gla_v1, Species_Pice_Mar_v1, Species_Pice_Spp_v1, Species_Pinu_Ban_v1, Species_Pinu_Con_v1, Species_Pinu_Spp_v1, Species_Popu_Bal_v1, Species_Popu_Spp_v1, Species_Quer_Mac_v1, Species_Sali_Spp_v1, SpeciesGroups_Broadleaf_Spp_v1, SpeciesGroups_Needleleaf_Spp_v1, Structure_Stand_Age_v1, TD, TPI.

An important consideration for model forecasting was that the number of predictors used to model density were kept at a minimum, i.e. 10-12 variables. This required to assess variable importance for each species. We have results from the BAM National models, but the subregions do not align. So I opted to assess variable importance within the ABI study area.

To do that I considerd the above mentioned 67 variables one-by-one, excluding NALC (which is a categorical variable and was included regardless of model support). I fit univariate GAMs (counts as response, QPAD offsets) with a variable as spline. Then calculated AIC value. Variables were then sorder in increasing AIC values indicating decreasing support. I used the top 10 variables. I added NALC, survey year, and ARU (ARU data 1, human point count 0) as predictors irrespective of model support.

Model training

I used boosted regression trees (GBM) with species count (truncated to account for TMTT cases), QPAD offsets, and the GAM based set of predictors. Used 10 thousand trees, interaction depth of 3, bag fraction 0.5, and Poisson error distribution in GBM.

Prediction

Predictions were either done for the training data or for raster cells. I used the 2011 version of predictors over the study area as 1 km\(^2\) resolution rasters. When predicting outside of the actual data I fixed survey year at 2011, ARU at 0 value (i.e. standardizing for these).

Prediction smoothing was done using NALC only (formerly referred to as ‘post hoc binning’), or using all the same predictors. This would translate the BRT models into an easily and quickly forecasteable linear model (with dozen coefficients instead of an object with 10K trees and many splits to predict from).

I suggest using the GBM models directly for prediction. This area needs further assessment which was not the goal here. Results are presented as information to further that discussion. What is clear is that NALC-only smoothing needs to be customized to take into account species ranges, i.e. there is no point in assigning abundance values outside of the range. This brings up further questions regarding range shifts in the future. The multivariate smoothing is more straightforward and is being assessed as part of the Ring of Fire regional project as well.

Assessment

Prediction for the training data was used to calculate ROC/AUC (based on 0, >0 binarized counts) to assess model performance comparing predictions to observations.

I clipped the BAM National Model mean abundances to serve as a visual guide to assess the range of values and possible range issues.

We created marginal effect plots for NALC separately, and for the rest of the continuous predictors.

We compared congruance across the 10 bootstrap replicates to see how variable results are. We used the overall concordance correlation coefficient (OCCC) which is a product of precision precision (degree of variation) and accuracy (degree of location or scale shift relative to the 1:1 line).

Results and application

The following model results are auploaded to the BAM Google Drive:

  • 10 replicates for each species, object including the GBM model and AUC values
  • diagnostic plots: map, effects plots with variable importance, OCCC metrics

The saved objects include the PKEYs used for reproducibility. More replicates can be run in a relativey short amount of time if needed (it takes less than a day to add 10 more replicates for all the 117 species).

Code documenting data processing, model training, and prediction can be found here: https://github.com/borealbirds/GNM/tree/master/regions/wbi. Forecasting example is given in the forecast-example.R file.

Diagnostics

Some species had low AUC values, these tended to be the rare species:

Here are 10 species from the bottom:

Species P_Occ AUC
Red Crossbill 0.002 0.484
Pine Grosbeak 0.003 0.573
Alder Flycatcher 0.118 0.594
Purple Finch 0.007 0.614
Northern Flicker 0.029 0.623
Lincoln’s Sparrow 0.153 0.630
American Robin 0.161 0.632
Olive-sided Flycatcher 0.022 0.633
Chipping Sparrow 0.244 0.633
Solitary Sandpiper 0.010 0.641

The low OCCC values indicated for some species that the bootstrap replicates might result in different ranking of habitats (low precision) or uncertainty regarding the actual abundance values (low accuracy):

Here are 10 species from the bottom with lowest precision (the more important metric):

Species occc oprec oaccu
Townsend’s Solitaire 0.070 0.191 0.367
Red Crossbill 0.103 0.212 0.487
Purple Finch 0.042 0.213 0.196
Downy Woodpecker 0.206 0.320 0.644
Solitary Sandpiper 0.152 0.379 0.401
Horned Lark 0.472 0.525 0.900
White-breasted Nuthatch 0.343 0.553 0.620
Pine Grosbeak 0.361 0.554 0.652
American Three-toed Woodpecker 0.522 0.562 0.929
Black-backed Woodpecker 0.513 0.623 0.824

We also compared population size estimates from the clipped National Model surface (GNM) and the current regional models (GBM):

Here are the details for each species:

Species N_GNM N_GBM AUC P_Occ occc oprec oaccu
Alder Flycatcher 56.744 65.224 0.594 0.118 0.468 0.765 0.612
American Crow 6.429 7.944 0.828 0.052 0.992 0.993 0.999
American Goldfinch 19.666 20.879 0.880 0.018 0.976 0.979 0.997
American Redstart 28.278 42.307 0.796 0.074 0.969 0.972 0.997
American Robin 97.549 104.030 0.632 0.161 0.970 0.976 0.994
American Tree Sparrow 15.951 17.363 0.936 0.012 0.954 0.965 0.989
American Three-toed Woodpecker 2.063 2.357 0.726 0.006 0.522 0.562 0.929
Baltimore Oriole 2.127 4.035 0.844 0.006 0.933 0.939 0.994
Barn Swallow 11.414 12.214 0.815 0.008 0.943 0.952 0.990
Black-and-white Warbler 13.290 22.237 0.776 0.039 0.939 0.951 0.986
Black-billed Cuckoo 0.562 0.669 0.949 0.003 0.941 0.981 0.959
Black-billed Magpie 1.652 1.781 0.871 0.013 0.981 0.986 0.995
Bay-breasted Warbler 13.553 26.103 0.855 0.026 0.814 0.839 0.969
Black-backed Woodpecker 1.229 1.835 0.849 0.004 0.513 0.623 0.824
Black-capped Chickadee 16.262 25.103 0.702 0.035 0.860 0.878 0.979
Belted Kingfisher 1.792 2.291 0.731 0.002 0.501 0.638 0.785
Brown-headed Cowbird 17.911 16.989 0.813 0.025 0.981 0.984 0.997
Blue-headed Vireo 10.702 17.608 0.744 0.042 0.907 0.929 0.977
Blackburnian Warbler 3.811 8.333 0.846 0.014 0.915 0.935 0.978
Blue Jay 2.213 3.329 0.794 0.013 0.921 0.945 0.975
Blackpoll Warbler 50.426 46.232 0.811 0.023 0.934 0.948 0.985
Bobolink 4.481 2.460 0.947 0.002 0.881 0.898 0.981
Boreal Chickadee 30.919 41.831 0.740 0.022 0.830 0.861 0.964
Bohemian Waxwing 38.391 20.492 0.661 0.002 0.680 0.811 0.838
Brewer’s Blackbird 9.397 4.148 0.769 0.005 0.939 0.953 0.985
Brown Creeper 6.085 16.634 0.862 0.028 0.801 0.886 0.904
Black-throated Green Warbler 2.523 6.126 0.886 0.052 0.935 0.956 0.978
Canada Warbler 3.634 6.684 0.842 0.020 0.903 0.922 0.979
Clay-colored Sparrow 29.855 47.953 0.847 0.080 0.994 0.995 0.998
Cedar Waxwing 35.670 56.036 0.659 0.027 0.687 0.867 0.793
Chipping Sparrow 133.141 150.353 0.633 0.244 0.969 0.984 0.985
Cape May Warbler 11.522 23.436 0.829 0.018 0.900 0.926 0.972
Common Grackle 4.999 3.238 0.717 0.003 0.795 0.827 0.961
Connecticut Warbler 3.302 9.276 0.744 0.048 0.800 0.832 0.961
Common Raven 12.636 17.367 0.642 0.066 0.943 0.966 0.975
Common Yellowthroat 21.525 39.075 0.725 0.087 0.892 0.939 0.950
Chestnut-sided Warbler 4.297 6.927 0.910 0.021 0.944 0.980 0.963
Dark-eyed Junco 145.379 156.380 0.756 0.139 0.978 0.979 0.998
Downy Woodpecker 2.120 3.267 0.681 0.004 0.206 0.320 0.644
Eastern Kingbird 2.360 3.057 0.784 0.005 0.900 0.932 0.966
Eastern Phoebe 1.777 2.407 0.806 0.004 0.927 0.955 0.970
European Starling 7.575 9.751 0.853 0.004 0.893 0.915 0.976
Evening Grosbeak 1.551 3.395 0.722 0.007 0.470 0.791 0.594
Fox Sparrow 21.261 21.353 0.811 0.034 0.976 0.978 0.997
Great Crested Flycatcher 0.587 0.817 0.919 0.003 0.884 0.903 0.979
Golden-crowned Kinglet 20.384 26.851 0.820 0.023 0.824 0.891 0.924
Golden-crowned Sparrow 2.241 2.796 0.709 0.002 0.688 0.798 0.863
Gray-cheeked Thrush 11.289 9.418 0.910 0.011 0.943 0.952 0.990
Gray Jay 67.547 81.759 0.733 0.091 0.947 0.965 0.982
Gray Catbird 2.741 3.333 0.866 0.005 0.969 0.974 0.995
Greater Yellowlegs 3.069 4.946 0.835 0.023 0.733 0.844 0.869
Hammond’s Flycatcher 10.469 5.111 0.924 0.004 0.722 0.760 0.950
Hairy Woodpecker 6.575 9.615 0.698 0.015 0.748 0.814 0.920
Hermit Thrush 49.037 50.320 0.701 0.176 0.890 0.989 0.900
Horned Lark 3.320 1.267 0.896 0.002 0.472 0.525 0.900
House Sparrow 9.475 4.387 0.838 0.002 0.785 0.846 0.928
House Wren 5.776 6.666 0.874 0.019 0.982 0.983 0.999
Killdeer 3.317 3.046 0.793 0.007 0.943 0.961 0.982
Lapland Longspur 11.386 1.262 0.998 0.004 0.454 0.755 0.602
Le Conte’s Sparrow 6.250 18.087 0.722 0.044 0.000 NA NA
Least Flycatcher 39.708 53.639 0.730 0.093 0.959 0.967 0.991
Lesser Yellowlegs 6.834 7.546 0.696 0.019 0.870 0.906 0.961
Lincoln’s Sparrow 65.896 72.019 0.630 0.153 0.000 NA NA
Magnolia Warbler 32.954 43.001 0.821 0.062 0.932 0.947 0.983
Marsh Wren 1.421 2.296 0.787 0.004 0.535 0.631 0.848
Mourning Dove 3.433 2.689 0.861 0.009 0.972 0.981 0.991
Mourning Warbler 7.423 16.200 0.789 0.077 0.953 0.958 0.994
Nashville Warbler 9.119 14.396 0.824 0.036 0.961 0.967 0.994
Northern Flicker 13.340 14.928 0.623 0.029 0.767 0.836 0.917
Northern Waterthrush 23.374 26.319 0.682 0.043 0.910 0.923 0.986
Orange-crowned Warbler 65.986 68.680 0.687 0.046 0.917 0.928 0.988
Olive-sided Flycatcher 4.462 4.164 0.633 0.022 0.494 0.875 0.565
Ovenbird 29.252 53.697 0.837 0.262 0.987 0.988 0.999
Palm Warbler 32.821 29.482 0.766 0.054 0.761 0.883 0.861
Philadelphia Vireo 4.215 10.180 0.749 0.023 0.877 0.895 0.980
Pine Grosbeak 4.168 3.675 0.573 0.003 0.361 0.554 0.652
Pine Siskin 80.234 109.530 0.684 0.047 0.927 0.959 0.966
Pileated Woodpecker 1.406 2.282 0.776 0.013 0.825 0.892 0.925
Purple Finch 3.055 4.821 0.614 0.007 0.042 0.213 0.196
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 7.113 12.820 0.797 0.079 0.970 0.976 0.994
Red-breasted Nuthatch 14.088 20.118 0.768 0.064 0.933 0.941 0.992
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 68.158 83.360 0.758 0.159 0.979 0.983 0.996
Red Crossbill 6.384 3.442 0.484 0.002 0.103 0.212 0.487
Red-eyed Vireo 42.428 67.506 0.765 0.226 0.984 0.985 0.999
Rusty Blackbird 6.232 6.319 0.826 0.008 0.734 0.809 0.908
Ruffed Grouse 2.889 6.264 0.766 0.036 0.744 0.904 0.823
Red-winged Blackbird 33.696 37.593 0.790 0.058 0.981 0.988 0.993
Savannah Sparrow 33.204 33.505 0.877 0.048 0.988 0.989 0.999
Sedge Wren 1.739 2.848 0.791 0.008 0.931 0.943 0.987
Solitary Sandpiper 4.103 5.842 0.641 0.010 0.152 0.379 0.401
Song Sparrow 17.746 23.246 0.852 0.053 0.994 0.995 0.999
Spotted Sandpiper 4.243 4.310 0.674 0.006 0.741 0.817 0.907
Swamp Sparrow 19.823 24.380 0.655 0.062 0.000 NA NA
Swainson’s Thrush 120.122 113.577 0.770 0.278 0.984 0.987 0.997
Tennessee Warbler 165.101 178.626 0.775 0.300 0.989 0.991 0.997
Townsend’s Solitaire 1.309 0.888 0.724 0.002 0.070 0.191 0.367
Townsend’s Warbler 6.775 3.360 0.732 0.002 0.696 0.710 0.980
Tree Swallow 8.851 14.091 0.725 0.019 0.939 0.953 0.985
Varied Thrush 6.921 5.127 0.759 0.017 0.891 0.901 0.989
Veery 2.170 2.098 0.926 0.010 0.902 0.914 0.987
Vesper Sparrow 3.398 3.234 0.908 0.015 0.980 0.981 0.999
Warbling Vireo 27.607 30.383 0.723 0.043 0.965 0.972 0.993
White-breasted Nuthatch 0.727 1.516 0.845 0.003 0.343 0.553 0.620
White-crowned Sparrow 40.094 29.937 0.874 0.032 0.969 0.973 0.996
Western Tanager 10.477 10.354 0.823 0.048 0.922 0.934 0.987
Western Wood-Pewee 2.734 5.446 0.716 0.014 0.710 0.795 0.893
Willow Ptarmigan 2.079 0.829 0.947 0.002 0.750 0.816 0.919
Wilson’s Snipe 15.698 23.446 0.674 0.086 0.951 0.972 0.978
Wilson’s Warbler 48.469 43.176 0.706 0.024 0.926 0.934 0.992
Winter Wren 4.868 8.544 0.823 0.085 0.872 0.949 0.919
White-throated Sparrow 76.626 109.870 0.702 0.419 0.987 0.992 0.995
White-winged Crossbill 63.238 69.167 0.689 0.033 0.825 0.863 0.956
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 16.600 19.431 0.802 0.025 0.889 0.904 0.984
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 12.693 20.241 0.742 0.071 0.932 0.952 0.979
Yellow Warbler 53.927 73.291 0.712 0.091 0.964 0.967 0.997
Yellow-headed Blackbird 3.444 1.837 0.840 0.003 0.553 0.655 0.845
Yellow-rumped Warbler 209.205 237.880 0.758 0.334 0.984 0.986 0.997

Species results

I list all the results for each species that can be evaluated to decide which species to drop due to poor model performance (range edge related or overall rarity that makes estimation difficult).

Alder Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Crow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Goldfinch

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Redstart

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Robin

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Tree Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

American Three-toed Woodpecker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Baltimore Oriole

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Barn Swallow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-and-white Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-billed Cuckoo

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-billed Magpie

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Bay-breasted Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-backed Woodpecker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-capped Chickadee

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Belted Kingfisher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Brown-headed Cowbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Blue-headed Vireo

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Blackburnian Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Blue Jay

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Blackpoll Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Boreal Chickadee

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Bohemian Waxwing

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Brewer’s Blackbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Brown Creeper

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Black-throated Green Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Canada Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Clay-colored Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Cedar Waxwing

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Chipping Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Cape May Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Common Grackle

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Connecticut Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Common Raven

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Common Yellowthroat

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Chestnut-sided Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Dark-eyed Junco

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Downy Woodpecker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Eastern Kingbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Eastern Phoebe

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

European Starling

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Evening Grosbeak

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Fox Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Great Crested Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Golden-crowned Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Gray-cheeked Thrush

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Gray Jay

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Gray Catbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Greater Yellowlegs

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Hammond’s Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Hairy Woodpecker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Hermit Thrush

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Horned Lark

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

House Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

House Wren

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Killdeer

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Lapland Longspur

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Le Conte’s Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Least Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Lesser Yellowlegs

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Lincoln’s Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Magnolia Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Marsh Wren

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Mourning Dove

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Mourning Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Nashville Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Northern Flicker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Northern Waterthrush

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Orange-crowned Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Olive-sided Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Ovenbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Palm Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Philadelphia Vireo

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Pine Grosbeak

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Pine Siskin

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Pileated Woodpecker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Purple Finch

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Rose-breasted Grosbeak

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Ruby-crowned Kinglet

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Red Crossbill

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Red-eyed Vireo

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Rusty Blackbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Ruffed Grouse

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Red-winged Blackbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Savannah Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Sedge Wren

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Solitary Sandpiper

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Song Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Spotted Sandpiper

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Swamp Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Swainson’s Thrush

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Tennessee Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Townsend’s Solitaire

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Townsend’s Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Tree Swallow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Varied Thrush

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Veery

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Vesper Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Warbling Vireo

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

White-breasted Nuthatch

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

White-crowned Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Western Tanager

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Western Wood-Pewee

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Willow Ptarmigan

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Wilson’s Snipe

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Wilson’s Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Winter Wren

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

White-throated Sparrow

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

White-winged Crossbill

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Yellow Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Yellow-headed Blackbird

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance:

Yellow-rumped Warbler

Boxplot showing expected (density with QPAD correction) vs. observed counts:

Detections:

Map:

Marginal effects for NALC:

Marginal effects for continuous predictors:

Bootstrap prediction concordance: